SHOT Show 2025: Our Take on the State of the Industry

Swanson Russell’s Patrick Finnegan (EVP, Group Account Director), Sam Larson (Account Supervisor), Roy Hill (Senior Public Relations Counsel) and Will Folsom (Public Relations Associate) recently returned from SHOT Show in Las Vegas. With so many companies and outdoor industry professionals gathered in one place, SHOT is the ideal place to assess the market landscape as 2025 begins.

Taking the Temperature of the Industry

The overall tone has been one of uncertainty, both in positive and negative ways depending on who you talked to. Many brands are coming off a year with flat to down sales, and while some had a stellar 2024, few brands expect 2025 to break any records and are planning conservatively. 

On the one hand, the new administration in Washington is likely to have a more favorable approach to regulation in the firearms industry, but that could be accompanied by softening demand from consumers due to broader political and economic factors. In the background, consumers’ feelings about the economy will likely be the difference between an up, down or flat year in 2025 as hunters and shooters evaluate how much disposable income they can spend on pricey gear and hunting trips versus less expensive products versus continuing to save up.

In 2025, many outdoor brands will be naturally inclined towards caution (reigning in costs, cutting back or delaying new product launches, etc.), but we believe the most successful brands will be the ones that find smart ways to speed up, make noise, and stand out when retail shelves are crowded. Operating as if we’re headed into a down year could prove a self-fulfilling prophecy, as brands that “play it safe” run the risk of stagnation and getting lost in a crowded landscape where audiences have increasingly short attention spans.

On the flip side, brands that invest for success over the long term are more likely to succeed because they will stand out in an otherwise timid market. We identified several strategies at SHOT that we see as keys to keeping brands moving forward in an uncertain 2025 and beyond — collaborating with partner brands, launching disruptive products to stand out, and continuing to focus on strong content programs.

Brand Collaborations Continue to Grow

These are nothing new, but collaborations continue to be a great way for brands to share resources, engage with each other’s audiences, and magnify impact. At this year’s SHOT Show, we saw collaborations between Magpul and both Ruger and ZEV, as well as between Glock and Aimpoint, and others.

The Ruger RXM is a modular handgun designed in conjunction with Magpul. Ruger makes the internal fire control parts while Magpul makes polymer grip modules available in different sizes and colors. Magpul also collaborated with another gunmaker, ZEV, to produce the 9mm FDP, Folding Defense Platform. This was originally teased at SHOT Show in 2008 as a concept gun, and now two versions are finally coming out later this year. Magpul makes the polymer parts while ZEV makes the serialized components.

Glock has also partnered with Aimpoint on a from-the-factory pistol/red dot combo. This turnkey solution eliminates the need to purchase a mounting plate and red dot sight separately after purchasing your handgun. Two well-respected brands, one simple and easy package.

Lastly, Federal partnered with a long list of well-respected rifle makers to ensure their new 7mm Backcountry cartridge would have plenty of bolt action rifle options on offer. (More on the 7mm BC later.) These rifle makers run the gamut from budget-minded rifle brands to high-end, semi-custom rifle brands. Even Geissele Automatics, which makes high-quality AR-pattern rifle components, released its first bolt action rifle to support the new cartridge.

Smart brand collaborations expand your reach to core audiences that are increasingly hard to reach in restricted product categories. Likewise, alignment between the right companies opens new avenues to talk differently about brands and products in unique ways.

The Products that Caused a Stir

Not every SHOT Show product launch is a home run. Your product is now available in flat dark earth? Cool. Product line extensions might be good for sales and for keeping the lights on, but they’re not necessarily going to grow the brand or help engage with the community in transformative ways. These small, incremental improvements have made the market ripe for something truly new and innovative, and for the most part, the category hasn’t been delivering.

That said, SHOT usually produces at least a handful of notable products that attract the eyeballs of industry insiders and consumers. This year it was Federal’s new 7mm Backcountry cartridge, which looks like it fits into that “truly new and innovative” category.

Some background: For the last 100 years, most rifle cartridges have used brass cases that can handle a limited amount of pressure when fired, meaning to achieve higher velocities, designers had to engineer larger cartridge cases and burn more powder. The 7mm Backcountry uses a new case material made from a steel alloy that can handle considerably more pressure.

That means it can achieve magnum-level velocities out of standard, 30-06 sized cartridges and shorter barrels (which are becoming more common with the growing adoption of suppressors). If it’s successful, the new design could have a major impact on how cartridges are designed in the future. Suffice it to say, the launch has created a spirited dialogue across the shoot/hunt community.

Time will tell how successful the 7mm Backcountry ultimately is, but Federal has done several things right:

1. They took a risk on a product they knew would take years to develop but ensured it would have a unique value proposition in a crowded space.
2. They partnered with 11 rifle manufacturers (and counting) to make sure there would be plenty of rifle options available at launch.
3. They put a fairly seamless content and PR plan in place — long before launch, Federal put the new cartridge into the hands of prominent gun writers, influencers, and industry partners, so on launch day, a steady stream of YouTube videos, online articles, podcasts and more were published to get the word out to the right audiences.

More Content, Better Content

Content is already a growing concern, and as SEO best practices and social media platforms continue to evolve, the pace at which content strategy must evolve is speeding up. The crux is that everyone wants impactful content delivered at a reasonable cost, and audiences’ appetites and expectations for content are outpacing brands’ ability to keep up within their budgets.

The most successful brands are thinking about content proactively rather than as an afterthought. There are many approaches a brand can take with various budgets, but our favorite content strategy is first and foremost to have one.

A brand’s needs will dictate who implements the content strategy and how. Some brands need to build an internal content team that manages its social media, editorial calendar and production in-house. Others need to engage with content creators and influencers. Many may need to partner with an agency and/or freelancers. Most brands need a mix of all these approaches.

One of the advantages of partnering with an agency is that they can help you build out a bespoke content strategy tailored to your needs, whether you need their help to implement all or just a slice of it. Once needs and a strategy are identified, the brand can put resources and partners in place to implement the plan effectively.

Besides quality and quantity of content as well as implementing a cohesive strategy, another issue we continue to see is hunting and firearms brands still having their content censored or throttled altogether on social media platforms and especially on YouTube. Time will tell how sincere and lasting some platforms’ pivot away from censorship are, but brands and content creators in this space aren’t waiting around to be burned again for showing benign gun stuff on their channels and accounts.

Many are abandoning YouTube altogether for platforms like Rumble. Still, others are banding together to join new, subscriber-based, pro-2A and pro-1A streaming networks like We The Free TV, which launched at SHOT.

This is the Year to Keep Pushing Forward

In 2025, brands need to keep their foot on the gas pedal and play the long game. Demand is still solid but has returned closer to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, supply has caught up — inventory is high across the industry and shelves are full. Consumers have a greater choice in products than they’ve had in years, so now is the time for companies to boost their brand favorability over their competitors.

Smart collaborations with complementary partners in the industry, developing conversation-worthy products, and implementing the right content strategy are trends we will continue to watch in 2025 and beyond.